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This is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. Cooke considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematical foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models. Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
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Revue de presse :
`so clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limmitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended.' New Scientist
`valuable and important book' Isaac Levi, Columbia University
`clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended.' New Scientist
`valuable and important book' Isaac Levi, Columbia University
`clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended.' New Scientist
Les informations fournies dans la section « A propos du livre » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.
- ÉditeurOxford University Press Inc
- Date d'édition1992
- ISBN 10 0195064658
- ISBN 13 9780195064650
- ReliureRelié
- Nombre de pages334
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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)
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(1991)
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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)
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(1991)
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ISBN 13 : 9780195064650
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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)
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ISBN 13 : 9780195064650
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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)
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ISBN 13 : 9780195064650
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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)
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(1991)
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ISBN 13 : 9780195064650
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EXPERTS IN UNCERTAINTY: OPINION
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Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science
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Experts in Uncertainty Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series
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Experts in Uncertainty Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series
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Description du livre HRD. Etat : New. New Book. Delivered from our UK warehouse in 4 to 14 business days. THIS BOOK IS PRINTED ON DEMAND. Established seller since 2000. N° de réf. du vendeur L1-9780195064650
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Experts in Uncertainty (Hardcover)
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(1992)
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Description du livre Hardcover. Etat : new. Hardcover. This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers howexpert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can beassessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning. Experts in Uncertainty is an extensive survey and critical examination of the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. Shipping may be from our Sydney, NSW warehouse or from our UK or US warehouse, depending on stock availability. N° de réf. du vendeur 9780195064650
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