Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement: A Practical Guide - Couverture rigide

Meyer, Mary; Booker, Jane

 
9780124932302: Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement: A Practical Guide

Synopsis

Expert judgement is used in response to an enormous diversity of technical problems. The expert is often required to perform a role when other sources, such as measurement, observations, experimentation, or simulation, are unavailable or not widely agreed upon. However, many problems are faced in translating expert judgement into reliable and unbiased solutions. With the correct elicitation and analysis techniques, Meyer and Booker show that using expert judgement can be infinately more reliable and efficient. The subject of this book is analyzing and eliciting expert judgement for practical applications. The authors provide guidelines for formal elicitation and analysis, with particular reference to methods developed in the field of human cognition and communication. They also outline the principle which proscribes that elicitation and analysis techniques should not be dependent on the experts and their domain and on the way humans actually think. The book will allow even novice readers to design appropriate methods for their own particular application according to this principle.

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Présentation de l'éditeur

Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

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