Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? Here, in this highly original book - aimed squarely at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling - eminent statistician David Hand answers this question by weaving together various strands of probability into a unified explanation, which he calls the improbability principle.
This is a book that will appeal not only to those who love stories about startling coincidences and extraordinarily rare events, but also to those who are interested in how a single bold idea links areas as diverse as gambling, the weather, airline disasters and creative writing as well as the origin of life and even the universe. The Improbability Principle will change your perspective on how the world works – and tell you what the Bible code and Shakespeare have in common, how to win the lottery, why Apple's song shuffling was made less random to seem more random. Oh and why lightning does in fact strike twice...
"A hugely entertaining eye-opener about how misuse of statistics can skew our view of the world" (Daily Mail)
"Lively and lucid . . . an intensely useful (as well as a remarkably entertaining) book . . ." (Salon)
"In my experience, it is very rare to find a book that is both erudite and entertaining. Yet The Improbability Principle is such a book. Surely this cannot be due to chance alone!" (Hal Varian, Google’s Chief Economist)
"An elegant, astoundingly clear and enjoyable combination of subtle statistical thinking and real-world events." (Andrew Dilnot, co-author of 'The Numbers Game')
"As someone who happened to meet his future wife on a plane, on an airline he rarely used, I wholeheartedly endorse David Hand’s fascinating guide to improbability, a subject which affects the lives of all, yet until now has lacked a coherent exposition of its underlying principles." (Gordon Woo, catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions)
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Vendeur : World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, Etats-Unis
Etat : Very Good. Item in very good condition! Textbooks may not include supplemental items i.e. CDs, access codes etc. N° de réf. du vendeur 00105011308
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Vendeur : World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, Etats-Unis
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Vendeur : BooksRun, Philadelphia, PA, Etats-Unis
Hardcover. Etat : Fair. First Edition. With dust jacket. The item might be beaten up but readable. May contain markings or highlighting, as well as stains, bent corners, or any other major defect, but the text is not obscured in any way. N° de réf. du vendeur 0374175349-7-1-29
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Vendeur : Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, Etats-Unis
Etat : Very Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. N° de réf. du vendeur 10234301-6
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Vendeur : Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, Etats-Unis
Etat : Good. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. N° de réf. du vendeur 4971961-6
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Vendeur : Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, Etats-Unis
Etat : Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. N° de réf. du vendeur 5914433-6
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Vendeur : Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, Etats-Unis
Etat : Very Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. N° de réf. du vendeur 10234301-6
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Vendeur : Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, Etats-Unis
Etat : Very Good. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. N° de réf. du vendeur 5500166-6
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Vendeur : Wonder Book, Frederick, MD, Etats-Unis
Etat : Very Good. Very Good condition. A copy that may have a few cosmetic defects. May also contain light spine creasing or a few markings such as an owner's name, short gifter's inscription or light stamp. N° de réf. du vendeur G03F-02287
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Vendeur : World of Books Inc, Montgomery, IL, Etats-Unis
Hardback. Etat : Very Good. In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of miracle is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough. Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives--including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind chance moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land. N° de réf. du vendeur CIN0374175349VG
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