Making Decisions - Couverture rigide

Lindley, D. V.

Couverture rigide

ISBN 10 : 0471908037 ISBN 13 : 9780471908036

Editeur : John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1985

Synopsis

This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles - assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences and choosing that decision that maximises expected utility - decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximisation of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making.

A propos du livre

Quatrième de couverture

Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision–making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision–making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision–making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents

1. Decisions and uncertain events
2. A numerical measure for uncertainty
3. The laws of probability
4. A numerical measure for consequences
5. The utility of money
6. Bayes’ Theorem
7. Value of information
8. Decision trees
9. The assessment of probabilities and utilities
10. An appreciation

Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

Détails de l'édition

• Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
• Date d'édition: 1985
• Langue: anglais
• ISBN 10: 0471908037
• ISBN 13: 9780471908036
• Reliure: Relié
• Numéro d'édition: 2
• Nombre de pages: 220
• Coordonnées du fabricant: non disponible
• Personne responsable: non disponible