Judgement and Choice: The Psychology of Decision - Couverture rigide

Hogarth, Robin M.

Couverture rigide

ISBN 10 : 0471914797 ISBN 13 : 9780471914792

Editeur : John Wiley & Sons Inc, 1987

Synopsis

Despite the many formal methods available most decisions are made intuitively?that is, without apparent reasoning and almost instinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes the unstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercise choice, which accounts for almost all real decision-making activity, but argues that intuition can be both studied and educated. The book is quite different from standard texts on decision-making methodology and standard decisions theory in that it is written from the point of view of a psychologist who recognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipations people make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead to choices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clear and non-technical way it deals with the basis of intuitive judgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability to make judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potential shortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance of learning the limits to one's judgmental a bility. The purpose of this book is to help people make better decisions. In a world of increasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will be of great value to all decision makers?in commerce, government service, medicine or any other professional activity. Contents Preface;

1. The nature of human judgement;
2. Randomness and the probabilistic environment;
3. Combining information for prediction;
4. Combining information for evaluation and choice;
5. Choice under uncertainty;
6. On learning relations;
7. The role of memory in judgement;
8. Creativity, imagination, and choice;
9. Problem structuring and decision aids;
10. Human judgement?an overview; Appendices; Index

Reviews of the First Edition I believe that Professor Hogarth's book will prove to be of historical importance in the development of the field of human judgement.? R.M. Corbin, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. Hogarth has given us a clear, integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and has managed to convey both the excitement of the work itself and the direct practical implications of the findings.? Terry Connolly, ASQ, June 1982.

A propos du livre

À propos de l'auteur

Robin M. Hogarth is the author of Judgment and Choice: The Psychology of Decision, 2nd Edition, published by Wiley.

Détails de l'édition

• Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc
• Date d'édition: 1987
• Langue: anglais
• ISBN 10: 0471914797
• ISBN 13: 9780471914792
• Reliure: Relié
• Numéro d'édition: 2
• Nombre de pages: 320
• Coordonnées du fabricant: non disponible
• Personne responsable: non disponible