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Synopsis
The world is filled with curious facts: intelligent women tend to marry men who are less intelligent. Students who get the highest scores in year-three generally get lower scores in year-four. Pilot trainees praised for good performance achieve worse results in their next exercise, but trainees who are shouted at for doing poorly perform better later on. But it would be wrong for us to assume that smart women are more attracted to unintelligent men or that schools are failing their students, or that shouting is the best way to get results. There is one unifying reason for each of these curious cases: a concept called `regression to the mean' which explains how we can easily be misled by random chance in our daily lives. Luck can wreak all kinds of mischief in sports, business, education, politics, and everywhere in between so that we attach meaning to the meaningless, making questionable decisions that leave us wondering: what went wrong? In What the Luck? statistician Gary Smith and author of Standard Deviations (The Times Book of the Week) explains how an understanding of luck can not only change the way we see the world but how we can make better choices by using the realm of probability to our advantage.
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À propos de l?auteur
GARY SMITH is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College in Claremont, California. He received his PhD in Economics from Yale University and taught as an Assistant Professor. He won two teaching awards and has written/co-authored) eighty academic papers and twelve books including Standard Deviations, also published by Duckworth. Find out more at: garysmithn.com
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What the Luck?: The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives
Edité par
Gerald Duckworth & Co Ltd, 2018
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ISBN 13 : 9780715652657
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What the Luck?
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What the Luck?
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Paperback. Etat : New. We underestimate the importance of luck in our lives. We think too highly of the golfer who wins the British Open and, if he loses the next tournament, we speculate that he slacked off. Although the winner is surely an excellent golfer, good luck in how the ball bounced and how it rolled afterwards outside of the golfer's control also played an important role. An insufficient appreciation of chance can wreak all kinds of mischief not only in sports, but also education, medicine, business, politics and elsewhere. Perfectly natural, random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counter-intuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped readers identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck? statistician and author, Gary Smith, sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives. N° de réf. du vendeur LU-9780715652657
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What the Luck?
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Paperback. Etat : New. We underestimate the importance of luck in our lives. We think too highly of the golfer who wins the British Open and, if he loses the next tournament, we speculate that he slacked off. Although the winner is surely an excellent golfer, good luck in how the ball bounced and how it rolled afterwards outside of the golfer's control also played an important role. An insufficient appreciation of chance can wreak all kinds of mischief not only in sports, but also education, medicine, business, politics and elsewhere. Perfectly natural, random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counter-intuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped readers identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck? statistician and author, Gary Smith, sets himself a similar goal, and explains - in clear, understandable, and witty prose - how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives. N° de réf. du vendeur LU-9780715652657
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What the Luck?
Edité par
Gerald Duckworth & Co Ltd, 2018
ISBN 10 : 0715652656
ISBN 13 : 9780715652657
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What the Luck?
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What the Luck?
Edité par
Gerald Duckworth & Co Ltd, 2018
ISBN 10 : 0715652656
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