Articles liés à Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why...
Synopsis
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Les informations fournies dans la section « Synopsis » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.
À propos de l?auteur
Dan Gardner is the bestselling author of Risk as well as a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen. Trained in history and law, Gardner worked in politics as a senior policy adviser before turning to journalism. His writing has received numerous awards, including the National Newspaper Award and Amnesty International's Media Award. He lives in Ottawa with his wife and two children.
Les informations fournies dans la section « A propos du livre » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.
- ÉditeurVirgin Books
- Date d'édition2011
- ISBN 10 0753522365
- ISBN 13 9780753522363
- ReliureBroché
- Langueanglais
- Nombre de pages320
- Coordonnées du fabricantnon disponible
Acheter neuf
Afficher cet article
EUR 30,45
EUR 11,91 expédition depuis Royaume-Uni vers France
Destinations, frais et délaisAutres éditions populaires du même titre
Résultats de recherche pour Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why...
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books 05/05/2011, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Couverture souple
Vendeur : Bahamut Media, Reading, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Etat : Very Good. Shipped within 24 hours from our UK warehouse. Clean, undamaged book with no damage to pages and minimal wear to the cover. Spine still tight, in very good condition. Remember if you are not happy, you are covered by our 100% money back guarantee. N° de réf. du vendeur 6545-9780753522363
Quantité disponible : 2 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books 05/05/2011, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Couverture souple
Vendeur : AwesomeBooks, Wallingford, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Etat : Very Good. This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. . N° de réf. du vendeur 7719-9780753522363
Quantité disponible : 2 disponible(s)
Image fournie par le vendeur
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Couverture souple
Vendeur : WeBuyBooks, Rossendale, LANCS, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Etat : Very Good. Most items will be dispatched the same or the next working day. A copy that has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. N° de réf. du vendeur wbs6389724856
Quantité disponible : 1 disponible(s)
Image fournie par le vendeur
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Couverture souple
Vendeur : WeBuyBooks, Rossendale, LANCS, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Etat : Good. Most items will be dispatched the same or the next working day. A copy that has been read but remains in clean condition. All of the pages are intact and the cover is intact and the spine may show signs of wear. The book may have minor markings which are not specifically mentioned. Ex library copy with usual stamps & stickers. N° de réf. du vendeur wbs3763458214
Quantité disponible : 1 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Publishing, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Paperback
Vendeur : WorldofBooks, Goring-By-Sea, WS, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : Very Good. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged. N° de réf. du vendeur GOR003189907
Quantité disponible : 7 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway
Edité par
Ebury Publishing, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Couverture souple
Vendeur : Better World Books Ltd, Dunfermline, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Etat : Good. Ships from the UK. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages. N° de réf. du vendeur 8212167-6
Quantité disponible : 3 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Paperback
Vendeur : Brit Books, Milton Keynes, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 4 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : Used; Good. ***Simply Brit*** Welcome to our online used book store, where affordability meets great quality. Dive into a world of captivating reads without breaking the bank. We take pride in offering a wide selection of used books, from classics to hidden gems, ensuring there is something for every literary palate. All orders are shipped within 24 hours and our lightning fast-delivery within 48 hours coupled with our prompt customer service ensures a smooth journey from ordering to delivery. Discover the joy of reading with us, your trusted source for affordable books that do not compromise on quality. N° de réf. du vendeur 1065587
Quantité disponible : 1 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Paperback
Vendeur : Brit Books, Milton Keynes, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 4 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : Used; Very Good. ***Simply Brit*** Welcome to our online used book store, where affordability meets great quality. Dive into a world of captivating reads without breaking the bank. We take pride in offering a wide selection of used books, from classics to hidden gems, ensuring there is something for every literary palate. All orders are shipped within 24 hours and our lightning fast-delivery within 48 hours coupled with our prompt customer service ensures a smooth journey from ordering to delivery. Discover the joy of reading with us, your trusted source for affordable books that do not compromise on quality. N° de réf. du vendeur 2276287
Quantité disponible : 2 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Books, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
Paperback
Vendeur : Greener Books, London, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : Used; Very Good. **SHIPPED FROM UK** We believe you will be completely satisfied with our quick and reliable service. All orders are dispatched as swiftly as possible! Buy with confidence! Greener Books. N° de réf. du vendeur 2820626
Quantité disponible : 4 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe them Anyway
Edité par
Virgin Publishing, 2011
ISBN 10 : 0753522365
ISBN 13 : 9780753522363
Ancien ou d'occasion
paperback
Vendeur : Old Goat Books, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Évaluation du vendeur 4 sur 5 étoiles
paperback. Etat : Good. Crease to cover. Shelf wear. N° de réf. du vendeur 9854070
Quantité disponible : 1 disponible(s)