RAND studied 89 modern insurgency cases to test conventional understanding about how insurgencies end. Findings relevant to policymakers and analysts include that modern insurgencies last about ten years; withdrawal of state support cripples insurgencies; civil defense forces are useful for both sides; pseudodemocracies fare poorly against insurgents; and governments win more often in the long run.
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This volume tested conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end against the evidence from 89 insurgencies. It compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chance of winning may increase slightly over time. Other findings include that withdrawal of state support cripples insurgencies, civil defense forces are useful for both sides, and pseudo democracies fare poorly against insurgents.
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