Harnessing the Genie: Science and Technology Forecasting for the Air Force, 1944-1986 - Couverture souple

Gorn, Michael H.

Couverture souple

ISBN 10 : 0912799528 ISBN 13 : 9780912799520

Editeur : Air Force History & Museums program, 1988

Synopsis

Book by Gorn Michael H

A propos du livre

Présentation de l'éditeur

Air power has always been closely linked to science and technology. The very reality of flight depended upon a technical innovation. Unlike the other services, where machines merely support the mission, technology is for the Air Force at the very heart of its existence as an institution. As a consequence, the USAF and its predecessor organizations have always recognized the singular importance of science to their survival. This lesson was driven home with new urgency on December 7, 1941. No longer were American borders secure against aerial bombardment. The Japanese proved at Pearl Harbor that U.S. territory was not immune from attack; waves of bombers might strike without warning and with devastating effects. Commanding General of the Army Air Forces Henry H. Arnold countered the threat, at least in part, with brainpower from the universities. Three years later, with victory close at hand, Arnold began to consider the safety of the country once the war was over. The danger of sudden and devastating raids had greatly increased since Pearl Harbor. He turned, as he had during the war, to academia and enlisted the help of Dr. Theodore von Karman, asking him to assemble a group of top scientists to review aeronautical research and make recommendations about the future of air power in light of probable scientific opportunities in the decades to come. The result is felt in the Air Force yet today, for Toward New Horizons, written by von Karman's USAF Scientific Advisory Group, has endured as the model for Air Force science and technology forecasts. Renamed the USAF Scientific Advisory Board, the institution von Karman created has also endured. Harnessing the Genie tells us that while both the report and the board continue to be regarded with the utmost respect, their roles have been imperceptibly transformed over time. Toward New Horizons was followed in 1957 and 1958 by the Woods Hole Summer Studies, in 1964 by Project Forecast, in 1975 by New Horizons II, and in 1986 by Project Forecast II. But with each report, the likeness to von Karman's model has become more remote. The extent of reliance on independent advice has steadily lessened and greater emphasis placed on internal USAF sources for forecasting the future. As a consequence, the Scientific Advisory Board is no longer involved in long-range, broadly based forecasting envisioned by von Karman, but devotes itself to giving advice on technical subjects. Moreover, no institution has arisen to claim control over the process of forecasting and directing the pace and direction of technological change. Instead, the direction of technological forecasting of long-range research and development has wandered from the National Academy of Sciences to the Air Force Systems Command to the Air Staff, and back again to Systems Command. The reports themselves have changed accordingly. Toward New Horizons, rooted in the basic sciences, stressed the abstract principles of nature and how they related to air-power advancements. As their participants have gradually become more closely associated with the Air Force, the subsequent studies have become more technological than scientific, reflecting a declining representation of independent scientists on the succeeding panels. Thus, Harnessing the Genie describes and analyzes the methodologies and conclusions of the five main science and technology forecasts undertaken by the Air Force since before its birth as an independent service. Hopefully, this work will provide useful background as the Air Force grapples with the technological demands of national security in the 21st century. Harnessing the Genie: Science and Technology Forecasting for the Air Force - 1944-1986 * Introduction * Chapter I - A Mandate for Civilian Science, 1944-1950 * Chapter II - The Decline of Civilian Science, 1950-1958 * Chapter III - Conforming Science to Military Necessity, 1956-1966 * Chapter IV - Scientists in Uniform, 1966-1986 * Conclusion

Présentation de l'éditeur

This monograph on the forecasting of long-range Air Force science began as an attempt to describe the five major scientific studies undertaken by the U.S. Army Air Forces (USAAF)/U.S. Air Force (USAF) since the end of World War II. These reports included Toward New Horizons (1945), the Woods Hole Summer Studies (1957-1958), Project Forecast (1964), New Horizons II (1975), and Project Forecast II (1986). They seemed at first to represent nothing more than isolated efforts to predict the technological future. But shortly after initiating research on the subject, it became clear that several themes linked the five reports. Rather than a collection of unrelated analyses, common threads were seen to run through them. The realization of this pattern was surprising. Taken at face value, the reports appeared to be entirely different. They were not produced in any one place; they were not directed by people with similar backgrounds or educations. Both in number and type of participants, they differed widely. Methodologies were not at all uniform. Their conclusions varied significantly. In fact, they did not even have the same purposes. Toward New Horizons was initiated to summarize the most advanced air power technologies of World War II and project them into the future . The Woods Hole Summer Studies organized hundreds of academic scientists to predict the short and long-term military uses of space. Project Forecast had the mandate of revitalizing Air Force thinking by linking national policy issues to scientific vistas and new weapon systems. New Horizons II endeavored to point the way toward technological improvements in a period of expected scarcity. Finally, Project Forecast II sought to infuse the Air Force laboratories with new avenues of basic science research. Thus, for a variety of internal and external reasons, at roughly ten year intervals since the Second World War, the Air Force launched major science and technology forecasts.

Détails de l'édition

• Éditeur: Air Force History & Museums program
• Date d'édition: 1988
• ISBN 10: 0912799528
• ISBN 13: 9780912799520
• Reliure: Broché
• Langue: anglais
• Nombre de pages: 209
• Coordonnées du fabricant: non disponible