Statements of resolve - in which leaders indicate that their country is committed to a position and will not back down - are a fixture of international conflict. However, scholars have not agreed on how much these statements affect conflict outcomes or which conditions give them coercive credibility. Statements of Resolve argues that an important and underappreciated factor influencing the impact of resolved statements is the ability to follow through. Roseanne W. McManus explains how adversaries analyze a leader's ability to follow through on statements and shows that perceptions of the ability to follow through are influenced not only by military capabilities but also by less obvious domestic political conditions. Through rigorous statistical tests based on quantitative coding of US presidential statements and case studies of three Cold War conflicts, this book shows that resolved statements can effectively coerce adversaries, but only when a sufficient physical and political ability is present.
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Roseanne W. McManus is an Assistant Professor at Baruch College, City University of New York. Before earning her Ph.D. at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, she worked for four years at the US Defense Intelligence Agency, eventually rising to the position of Senior Analyst. Her dissertation, on which this book was based, was runner-up for the Kenneth Waltz Dissertation Prize from the American Political Science Association International Security and Arms Control section. She has articles published or forthcoming in International Organization, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, the Journal of Peace Research, and International Interactions.
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