Forecasting the Yield and the Price of Cotton (Classic Reprint)
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An eminent economist has recently told us that economists no longer talk so confidently as they once did of forecasting social phenomena, and that, confronted with the complexity of social relations, the sober-minded investigator will be slow in laying too much stress on single causes, slow in generalization, slowest of all in prediction. An equally distinguished statistician has warned his colleagues of the dangers of using refined mathematical methods in the treatment of the loose data supplied by our official bureaus. These are authoritative warnings, and I have not been unmindful of them as the successive theses of this Essay have been developed. But the ultimate aim of all science is prediction; the most ample and trustworthy data of economic science are official statistics; and the only adequate means of exploiting raw statistics are mathematical methods. The statistical devices used in the treatment of our problem of forecasting prices were, for the most part, invented, for another purpose, by Professor Karl Pearson, and rest upon the theory of probabilities.
(Typographical errors above are due to OCR software and don't occur in the book.)
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Paperback. Etat : New. Print on Demand. This book combines statistical methods with economic science to predict economic behavior. The author explains that most economic events follow a routine and therefore can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. The author offers a new approach to forecasting, arguing that it is possible to measure the degree of association between futures and spot values. The approach is based on the concept of correlation, which is explained in great detail through the use of simple and clear mathematics. The approach is applied to forecast the price of cotton and can be used universally to solve other problems in economics. This book is a reproduction of an important historical work, digitally reconstructed using state-of-the-art technology to preserve the original format. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in the book. print-on-demand item. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781331897545_0
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Vendeur : PBShop.store US, Wood Dale, IL, Etats-Unis
PAP. Etat : New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. N° de réf. du vendeur LW-9781331897545
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Vendeur : PBShop.store UK, Fairford, GLOS, Royaume-Uni
PAP. Etat : New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. N° de réf. du vendeur LW-9781331897545
Quantité disponible : 15 disponible(s)
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Vendeur : Buchpark, Trebbin, Allemagne
Etat : Hervorragend. Zustand: Hervorragend | Sprache: Englisch | Produktart: Bücher | Keine Beschreibung verfügbar. N° de réf. du vendeur 26012354/1
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