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The Expert Trap (Paperback)
Edité par
Readers First Publishing Ltd, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Paperback
Vendeur : Grand Eagle Retail, Bensenville, IL, Etats-Unis
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : new. Paperback. In The Expert Trap, author Simon Blackwood explores the measurable gap between how certain expertssound and how often they turn out to be right. Rather than a critique of arrogance or ego, this book uncovers astatistical failure that sits underneath collapsed hedge funds, wrongful medical diagnoses, failed forecasts, andstartup burn-rate fantasies-moments where the people involved were not villains, but were dangerouslymiscalibrated.Drawing on behavioral science and decision research, Simon Blackwood reveals how overconfidence operatesthrough three distinct patterns-overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision-each creating a differentkind of damage. The book dismantles the gap not through abstract theory, but through forensic case studies: theNobel laureates at Long-Term Capital Management who watched billions evaporate in 1998, surgeons whosediagnostic certainty correlates weakly with actual accuracy, political and financial forecasters whose predictionsgo unchecked, and founders whose launch dates harden into fiction long before the underlying uncertaintyresolves.- Why the most credentialed professionals fail most confidently at the worst possible moments- The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, staffed by Nobel Prize winners who miscalculated theirown risk exposure- How physicians' stated confidence in diagnoses tracks far more weakly with accuracy than patients assume- The three measurable forms of overconfidence that operate independently across domains- Why forecasters rarely face public audits of their past predictions, and what happens when someoneactually checks- How startup founders treat launch dates as facts before they've earned the right to be plans Simon Blackwood dissects how overconfidence operates through three measurable patterns and shows how to audit expert judgment before it compounds. This item is printed on demand. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781804281956
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Expédition nationale : Etats-Unis
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The Expert Trap
Edité par
Readers First Publishing Ltd, GB, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Paperback
Vendeur : Rarewaves.com USA, London, LONDO, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : New. N° de réf. du vendeur LU-9781804281956
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The Expert Trap: Why Success Makes You Blind to Risk-and How to Spot the Warning Signs Before You Lose Everything
Edité par
Readers First Publishing Ltd, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Couverture souple
Vendeur : California Books, Miami, FL, Etats-Unis
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Etat : New. N° de réf. du vendeur I-9781804281956
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The Expert Trap
Vendeur : PBShop.store US, Wood Dale, IL, Etats-Unis
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PAP. Etat : New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. N° de réf. du vendeur L2-9781804281956
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The Expert Trap
Vendeur : PBShop.store UK, Fairford, GLOS, Royaume-Uni
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PAP. Etat : New. New Book. Shipped from UK. Established seller since 2000. N° de réf. du vendeur L2-9781804281956
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The Expert Trap : Why Success Makes You Blind to Risk-and How to Spot the Warning Signs Before You Lose Everything
Edité par
Readers First Publishing LTD, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Taschenbuch
Vendeur : AHA-BUCH GmbH, Einbeck, Allemagne
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. nach der Bestellung gedruckt Neuware - Printed after ordering - In The Expert Trap, author Simon Blackwood explores the measurable gap between how certain expertssound and how often they turn out to be right. Rather than a critique of arrogance or ego, this book uncovers astatistical failure that sits underneath collapsed hedge funds, wrongful medical diagnoses, failed forecasts, andstartup burn-rate fantasies-moments where the people involved were not villains, but were dangerouslymiscalibrated.Drawing on behavioral science and decision research, Simon Blackwood reveals how overconfidence operatesthrough three distinct patterns-overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision-each creating a differentkind of damage. The book dismantles the gap not through abstract theory, but through forensic case studies: theNobel laureates at Long-Term Capital Management who watched billions evaporate in 1998, surgeons whosediagnostic certainty correlates weakly with actual accuracy, political and financial forecasters whose predictionsgo unchecked, and founders whose launch dates harden into fiction long before the underlying uncertaintyresolves.- Why the most credentialed professionals fail most confidently at the worst possible moments- The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, staffed by Nobel Prize winners who miscalculated theirown risk exposure- How physicians' stated confidence in diagnoses tracks far more weakly with accuracy than patients assume- The three measurable forms of overconfidence that operate independently across domains- Why forecasters rarely face public audits of their past predictions, and what happens when someoneactually checks- How startup founders treat launch dates as facts before they've earned the right to be plans. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781804281956
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Expédition à EUR 35
Expédition depuis Allemagne vers Etats-Unis
Expédition depuis Allemagne vers Etats-Unis
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The Expert Trap (Paperback)
Edité par
Readers First Publishing Ltd, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Paperback
Vendeur : AussieBookSeller, Truganina, VIC, Australie
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : new. Paperback. In The Expert Trap, author Simon Blackwood explores the measurable gap between how certain expertssound and how often they turn out to be right. Rather than a critique of arrogance or ego, this book uncovers astatistical failure that sits underneath collapsed hedge funds, wrongful medical diagnoses, failed forecasts, andstartup burn-rate fantasies-moments where the people involved were not villains, but were dangerouslymiscalibrated.Drawing on behavioral science and decision research, Simon Blackwood reveals how overconfidence operatesthrough three distinct patterns-overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision-each creating a differentkind of damage. The book dismantles the gap not through abstract theory, but through forensic case studies: theNobel laureates at Long-Term Capital Management who watched billions evaporate in 1998, surgeons whosediagnostic certainty correlates weakly with actual accuracy, political and financial forecasters whose predictionsgo unchecked, and founders whose launch dates harden into fiction long before the underlying uncertaintyresolves.- Why the most credentialed professionals fail most confidently at the worst possible moments- The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, staffed by Nobel Prize winners who miscalculated theirown risk exposure- How physicians' stated confidence in diagnoses tracks far more weakly with accuracy than patients assume- The three measurable forms of overconfidence that operate independently across domains- Why forecasters rarely face public audits of their past predictions, and what happens when someoneactually checks- How startup founders treat launch dates as facts before they've earned the right to be plans Simon Blackwood dissects how overconfidence operates through three measurable patterns and shows how to audit expert judgment before it compounds. This item is printed on demand. Shipping may be from our Sydney, NSW warehouse or from our UK or US warehouse, depending on stock availability. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781804281956
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EUR 25,33
Expédition à EUR 32,88
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The Expert Trap (Paperback)
Edité par
Readers First Publishing Ltd, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Paperback
Vendeur : CitiRetail, Stevenage, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : new. Paperback. In The Expert Trap, author Simon Blackwood explores the measurable gap between how certain expertssound and how often they turn out to be right. Rather than a critique of arrogance or ego, this book uncovers astatistical failure that sits underneath collapsed hedge funds, wrongful medical diagnoses, failed forecasts, andstartup burn-rate fantasies-moments where the people involved were not villains, but were dangerouslymiscalibrated.Drawing on behavioral science and decision research, Simon Blackwood reveals how overconfidence operatesthrough three distinct patterns-overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision-each creating a differentkind of damage. The book dismantles the gap not through abstract theory, but through forensic case studies: theNobel laureates at Long-Term Capital Management who watched billions evaporate in 1998, surgeons whosediagnostic certainty correlates weakly with actual accuracy, political and financial forecasters whose predictionsgo unchecked, and founders whose launch dates harden into fiction long before the underlying uncertaintyresolves.- Why the most credentialed professionals fail most confidently at the worst possible moments- The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, staffed by Nobel Prize winners who miscalculated theirown risk exposure- How physicians' stated confidence in diagnoses tracks far more weakly with accuracy than patients assume- The three measurable forms of overconfidence that operate independently across domains- Why forecasters rarely face public audits of their past predictions, and what happens when someoneactually checks- How startup founders treat launch dates as facts before they've earned the right to be plans Simon Blackwood dissects how overconfidence operates through three measurable patterns and shows how to audit expert judgment before it compounds. This item is printed on demand. Shipping may be from our UK warehouse or from our Australian or US warehouses, depending on stock availability. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781804281956
Acheter neuf
EUR 22,40
Expédition à EUR 43,54
Expédition depuis Royaume-Uni vers Etats-Unis
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The Expert Trap | Why Success Makes You Blind to Risk-and How to Spot the Warning Signs Before You Lose Everything
Edité par
Readers First Publishing LTD, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Taschenbuch
Vendeur : preigu, Osnabrück, Allemagne
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. The Expert Trap | Why Success Makes You Blind to Risk-and How to Spot the Warning Signs Before You Lose Everything | Simon Blackwood | Taschenbuch | Englisch | 2026 | Readers First Publishing LTD | EAN 9781804281956 | Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Libri GmbH, Europaallee 1, 36244 Bad Hersfeld, gpsr[at]libri[dot]de | Anbieter: preigu Print on Demand. N° de réf. du vendeur 136090713
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The Expert Trap
Edité par
Readers First Publishing Ltd, GB, 2026
ISBN 10 : 1804281956
ISBN 13 : 9781804281956
Neuf
Paperback
Vendeur : Rarewaves.com UK, London, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Paperback. Etat : New. N° de réf. du vendeur LU-9781804281956
Acheter neuf
EUR 18,27
Expédition à EUR 76,48
Expédition depuis Royaume-Uni vers Etats-Unis
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