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Synopsis
Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus- sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be- nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5.
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- ÉditeurSpringer
- Date d'édition2013
- ISBN 10 1852330953
- ISBN 13 9781852330958
- ReliureBroché
- Langueanglais
- Nombre de pages300
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation
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Etat : New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. Provides unique, comprehensive coverage of generalisation and regularisation: Provides the first real-world test results for recent theoretical findings on the generalisation performance of committeesConventional applications of neural networks usually . N° de réf. du vendeur 4289360
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation: Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions (Perspectives in Neural Computing)
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Neural networks for conditional probability estimation : forecasting beyond point predictions / Dirk Husmeier / Perspectives in neural computing
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London ; Berlin ; Tokyo ; Heidelberg ; New York ; Barcelona ; Hong Kong ; Milan ; Paris ; Santa Clara ; Singapore : Springer, 1999
ISBN 10 : 1852330953
ISBN 13 : 9781852330958
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation
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Springer London, Springer London Feb 1999, 1999
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ISBN 13 : 9781852330958
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Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware -Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5.Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, 69121 Heidelberg 300 pp. Englisch. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781852330958
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation: Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions (Perspectives in Neural Computing)
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation : Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions
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Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781852330958
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation: Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions (Perspectives in Neural Computing)
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation: Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions
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ISBN 10 : 1852330953
ISBN 13 : 9781852330958
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation: Forecasting Beyond Point Predictions (Perspectives in Neural Computing)
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Paperback. Etat : Brand New. 275 pages. 9.50x6.25x0.75 inches. In Stock. N° de réf. du vendeur x-1852330953
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Neural Networks for Conditional Probability Estimation
Edité par
Springer London Feb 1999, 1999
ISBN 10 : 1852330953
ISBN 13 : 9781852330958
Neuf
Taschenbuch
Vendeur : BuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K., Bergisch Gladbach, Allemagne
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Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -Conventional applications of neural networks usually predict a single value as a function of given inputs. In forecasting, for example, a standard objective is to predict the future value of some entity of interest on the basis of a time series of past measurements or observations. Typical training schemes aim to minimise the sum of squared deviations between predicted and actual values (the 'targets'), by which, ideally, the network learns the conditional mean of the target given the input. If the underlying conditional distribution is Gaus sian or at least unimodal, this may be a satisfactory approach. However, for a multimodal distribution, the conditional mean does not capture the relevant features of the system, and the prediction performance will, in general, be very poor. This calls for a more powerful and sophisticated model, which can learn the whole conditional probability distribution. Chapter 1 demonstrates that even for a deterministic system and 'be nign' Gaussian observational noise, the conditional distribution of a future observation, conditional on a set of past observations, can become strongly skewed and multimodal. In Chapter 2, a general neural network structure for modelling conditional probability densities is derived, and it is shown that a universal approximator for this extended task requires at least two hidden layers. A training scheme is developed from a maximum likelihood approach in Chapter 3, and the performance ofthis method is demonstrated on three stochastic time series in chapters 4 and 5. 300 pp. Englisch. N° de réf. du vendeur 9781852330958
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