Towards Bayesian Model-based Demography: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies - Couverture rigide

Bijak, Jakub

9783030830380: Towards Bayesian Model-based Demography: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

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ISBN 10 : 3030830381 ISBN 13 : 9783030830380

Editeur : Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2021

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Part I: Preliminaries: Chapter 1. Introduction.- Chapter 2. Uncertainty and complexity: towards model-based demography.- Part II: Elements of the modelling process.- Chapter 3. Principles and state of the art of agent-based migration modelling.- Chapter 4. Building a knowledge base for the model.- Chapter 5. Uncertainty quantification, model calibration and sensitivity.- Chapter 6. The boundaries of cognition and decision making.- Chapter 7. Agent-based modelling and simulation with domain-specific languages.- Part III: Model results, applications, and reflections.- Chapter 8. Towards more realistic models.- Chapter 9. Bayesian model-based approach: impact on science and policy.- Chapter 10. Open science, replicability, and transparency in modelling.- Chapter 11. Conclusions: towards a Bayesian modelling process.

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� propos de l?auteur

Jakub Bijak is Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton. He has background in economics (PhD 2008, Warsaw School of Economics) and over 20 years' work experience in academia and international civil service. His research focuses on demographic uncertainty, population and migration models and forecasts, and the demography of armed conflict. He has been awarded the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015) and the Jerzy Z Holzer Medal (2007) for work on migration modelling. Leader of a European Research Council project "Bayesian agent-based population studies" (www.baps-project.eu), and a Horizon 2020 project "QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy" (www.quantmig.eu).

Les informations fournies dans la section � A propos du livre � peuvent faire r�f�rence � une autre �dition de ce titre.

�diteur: Springer Nature Switzerland AG
Date d'�dition: 2021
Langue: anglais
ISBN 10: 3030830381
ISBN 13: 9783030830380
Reliure: Reli�
Num�ro d'�dition: 1
Nombre de pages: 263
Coordonn�es du fabricant: non disponible
Personne responsable: CMN Printpool Inh. Mathis Neumann
https://www.also.com/ec/cms5/en_6000/6000/index.jsp

Friedrich-Karl-Str. 9
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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

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Gebunden. Etat : New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cogni. N� de r�f. du vendeur 483485880

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography : Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

Jakub Bijak

Edit� par Springer International Publishing, 2021

ISBN 10 : 3030830381 ISBN 13 : 9783030830380

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Buch. Etat : Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration - one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly. N� de r�f. du vendeur 9783030830380

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Jakub Bijak

Edit� par Springer International Publishing Dez 2021, 2021

ISBN 10 : 3030830381 ISBN 13 : 9783030830380

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Buch. Etat : Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration - one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly. 292 pp. Englisch. N� de r�f. du vendeur 9783030830380

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies (Methodos Series, 17)

Bijak, Jakub

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Jakub Bijak

Edit� par Springer International Publishing, Springer International Publishing Dez 2021, 2021

ISBN 10 : 3030830381 ISBN 13 : 9783030830380

Neuf Couverture rigide

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Buch. Etat : Neu. Neuware -This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration � one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, 69121 Heidelberg 292 pp. Englisch. N� de r�f. du vendeur 9783030830380

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