Articles liés à Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study

Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study - Couverture souple

Brennscheidt, Gunnar

 
9783540573111: Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study
Couverture souple
ISBN 10 : 3540573119 ISBN 13 : 9783540573111
Editeur : Springer - Verlag, 1993

Synopsis

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (witha total of 167 independent subjects) on forecastingbehavior. In all experiments, the time series to beforecasted was generated by an abstract econometric modelinvolving two or three artificial exogenous variables. Thisdesignprovides an optimal background for rationalexpectations and least-squares learning. As expected, thesehypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behaviorsatisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack ofrationality are studied: Concentration on changes ratherthan levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation ofvolatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior isobserved. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts suchas prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,arestudied.

Les informations fournies dans la section « Synopsis » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.

À propos de la quatrième de couverture

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

Les informations fournies dans la section « A propos du livre » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.

Éditeur
Springer - Verlag
Date d'édition
1993
Langue
anglais
ISBN 10 
3540573119
ISBN 13 
9783540573111
Reliure
Broché
Nombre de pages
233
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