Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach - Couverture souple
Synopsis
Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Leicester (Center of Management), language: English, abstract: To date, nobody has formulated a comprehensive theorem to determine gold valuation or precious metal prices. Until fairly recently, Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis was the predominant paradigm explaining asset markets but today it is widely acknowledged that markets can be irrational and investors are prone to act irrationally. When trying to explain gold market anomalies, behavioural science approaches can be useful. Phenomena such as herding ('group think'), 'safe value bias' and investors' 'excessive extrapolation' can help explain positive price performance over a certain time. In this dissertation, the author investigates the applicability of a multivariate ARIMA (auto-regressive, integrated, moving average) model to help explain gold price movements from 1973 to 2011. This model uses the gold price and independent variables such as inflation, real interest rates, silver prices, the US dollar money supply (M2), oil prices, the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 as these are linked to gold and/or highly correlated with the gold price. The evaluation criteria were defined as R-squared, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and BIC. The model was calculated over so-called 'normal times' and times of crises (one political, one financial). The researcher used SPSS' Expert Modeler to find the best-fitting ARIMA model and to identify the independent variables significantly contributing to the fit of the model. Remarkably, a multivariate ARIMA model using independent variables explained almost twice as much of the variability of the gold price as a univariate ARIMA model using only the gold price. Also, throughout the complete period and during normal times the model explained a much higher percentage of the variability of the gold price than during crises and comparably more of the independent variabl
Les informations fournies dans la section « Synopsis » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.
Résultats de recherche pour Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement...
Image fournie par le vendeur
Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach
impression à la demandeVendeur : BuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K., Bergisch Gladbach, Allemagne
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Leicester (Center of Management), language: English, abstract: To date, nobody has formulated a comprehensive theorem to determine gold valuation or precious metal prices. Until fairly recently, Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis was the predominant paradigm explaining asset markets but today it is widely acknowledged that markets can be irrational and investors are prone to act irrationally. When trying to explain gold market anomalies, behavioural science approaches can be useful. Phenomena such as herding ('group think'), 'safe value bias' and investors' 'excessive extrapolation' can help explain positive price performance over a certain time.In this dissertation, the author investigates the applicability of a multivariate ARIMA (auto-regressive, integrated, moving average) model to help explain gold price movements from 1973 to 2011. This model uses the gold price and independent variables such as inflation, real interest rates, silver prices, the US dollar money supply (M2), oil prices, the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 as these are linked to gold and/or highly correlated with the gold price. The evaluation criteria were defined as R-squared, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and BIC. The model was calculated over so-called 'normal times' and times of crises (one political, one financial). The researcher used SPSS' Expert Modeler to find the best-fitting ARIMA model and to identify the independent variables significantly contributing to the fit of the model. Remarkably, a multivariate ARIMA model using independent variables explained almost twice as much of the variability of the gold price as a univariate ARIMA model using only the gold price. Also, throughout the complete period and during normal times the model explained a much higher percentage of the variability of the gold price than during crises and comparably more of the independent variables contributed significantly to the fit of the model (5 vs. 2). This can be explained by investors' tendencies to buy gold to preserve their assets ('safe value'), to follow the crowd ('herding') and to extrapolate past price chart developments.The results show that in an attempt to discern the cause of gold price movements, a multivariate ARIMA model outperforms a univariate ARIMA model significantly. The results of the study furthermore indicate researchers evaluating different methods to fit a time series should consider a multivariate ARIMA model, especially if the independent variables are highly correlated with the dependent variable. 80 pp. Englisch. N° de réf. du vendeur 9783668030947
Acheter neuf
EUR 42,95
Frais de port :
EUR 23
De Allemagne vers Etats-Unis
Quantité disponible : 2 disponible(s)
Image d'archives
Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach
impression à la demandeVendeur : Majestic Books, Hounslow, Royaume-Uni
Évaluation du vendeur 4 sur 5 étoiles
Etat : New. Print on Demand pp. 82. N° de réf. du vendeur 402126776
Acheter neuf
EUR 69,25
Frais de port :
EUR 7,35
De Royaume-Uni vers Etats-Unis
Quantité disponible : 4 disponible(s)
Image fournie par le vendeur
Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach
Edité par
GRIN Verlag, GRIN Verlag Sep 2015, 2015
ISBN 10 : 3668030944
ISBN 13 : 9783668030947
Neuf
Taschenbuch
Vendeur : buchversandmimpf2000, Emtmannsberg, BAYE, Allemagne
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. Neuware -Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Leicester (Center of Management), language: English, abstract: To date, nobody has formulated a comprehensive theorem to determine gold valuation or precious metal prices. Until fairly recently, Eugene Famäs Efficient Market Hypothesis was the predominant paradigm explaining asset markets but today it is widely acknowledged that markets can be irrational and investors are prone to act irrationally. When trying to explain gold market anomalies, behavioural science approaches can be useful. Phenomena such as herding (¿group think¿), ¿safe value bias¿ and investors¿ ¿excessive extrapolation¿ can help explain positive price performance over a certain time.In this dissertation, the author investigates the applicability of a multivariate ARIMA (auto-regressive, integrated, moving average) model to help explain gold price movements from 1973 to 2011. This model uses the gold price and independent variables such as inflation, real interest rates, silver prices, the US dollar money supply (M2), oil prices, the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 as these are linked to gold and/or highly correlated with the gold price. The evaluation criteria were defined as R-squared, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and BIC. The model was calculated over so-called ¿normal times¿ and times of crises (one political, one financial). The researcher used SPSS¿ Expert Modeler to find the best-fitting ARIMA model and to identify the independent variables significantly contributing to the fit of the model. Remarkably, a multivariate ARIMA model using independent variables explained almost twice as much of the variability of the gold price as a univariate ARIMA model using only the gold price. Also, throughout the complete period and during normal times the model explained a much higher percentage of the variability of the gold price than during crises and comparably more of the independent variables contributed significantly to the fit of the model (5 vs. 2). This can be explained by investors¿ tendencies to buy gold to preserve their assets (¿safe value¿), to follow the crowd (¿herding¿) and to extrapolate past price chart developments.The results show that in an attempt to discern the cause of gold price movements, a multivariate ARIMA model outperforms a univariate ARIMA model significantly. The results of the study furthermore indicate researchers evaluating different methods to fit a time series should consider a multivariate ARIMA model, especially if the independent variables are highly correlated with the dependent variable.BoD - Books on Demand, In de Tarpen 42, 22848 Norderstedt 80 pp. Englisch. N° de réf. du vendeur 9783668030947
Acheter neuf
EUR 42,95
Frais de port :
EUR 60
De Allemagne vers Etats-Unis
Quantité disponible : 2 disponible(s)
Image fournie par le vendeur
Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach
Vendeur : AHA-BUCH GmbH, Einbeck, Allemagne
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Leicester (Center of Management), language: English, abstract: To date, nobody has formulated a comprehensive theorem to determine gold valuation or precious metal prices. Until fairly recently, Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis was the predominant paradigm explaining asset markets but today it is widely acknowledged that markets can be irrational and investors are prone to act irrationally. When trying to explain gold market anomalies, behavioural science approaches can be useful. Phenomena such as herding ('group think'), 'safe value bias' and investors' 'excessive extrapolation' can help explain positive price performance over a certain time.In this dissertation, the author investigates the applicability of a multivariate ARIMA (auto-regressive, integrated, moving average) model to help explain gold price movements from 1973 to 2011. This model uses the gold price and independent variables such as inflation, real interest rates, silver prices, the US dollar money supply (M2), oil prices, the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 as these are linked to gold and/or highly correlated with the gold price. The evaluation criteria were defined as R-squared, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and BIC. The model was calculated over so-called 'normal times' and times of crises (one political, one financial). The researcher used SPSS' Expert Modeler to find the best-fitting ARIMA model and to identify the independent variables significantly contributing to the fit of the model. Remarkably, a multivariate ARIMA model using independent variables explained almost twice as much of the variability of the gold price as a univariate ARIMA model using only the gold price. Also, throughout the complete period and during normal times the model explained a much higher percentage of the variability of the gold price than during crises and comparably more of the independent variables contributed significantly to the fit of the model (5 vs. 2). This can be explained by investors' tendencies to buy gold to preserve their assets ('safe value'), to follow the crowd ('herding') and to extrapolate past price chart developments.The results show that in an attempt to discern the cause of gold price movements, a multivariate ARIMA model outperforms a univariate ARIMA model significantly. The results of the study furthermore indicate researchers evaluating different methods to fit a time series should consider a multivariate ARIMA model, especially if the independent variables are highly correlated with the dependent variable. N° de réf. du vendeur 9783668030947
Acheter neuf
EUR 42,95
Frais de port :
EUR 60,65
De Allemagne vers Etats-Unis
Quantité disponible : 1 disponible(s)
Image fournie par le vendeur
Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach
Vendeur : preigu, Osnabrück, Allemagne
Évaluation du vendeur 5 sur 5 étoiles
Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. Explaining the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using independent variables. An ARIMA model approach | Stefan Heini | Taschenbuch | 80 S. | Englisch | 2015 | GRIN Verlag | EAN 9783668030947 | Verantwortliche Person für die EU: BoD - Books on Demand, In de Tarpen 42, 22848 Norderstedt, info[at]bod[dot]de | Anbieter: preigu. N° de réf. du vendeur 104206066
Acheter neuf
EUR 42,95
Frais de port :
EUR 70
De Allemagne vers Etats-Unis
Quantité disponible : 5 disponible(s)