Articles liés à Inflation Forecasting, Central Bank Independence and...

Inflation Forecasting, Central Bank Independence and Price Stability: An analysis of Zimbabwe - Couverture souple

Mujutywa-Shayanewako, Melania

 
9783846525470: Inflation Forecasting, Central Bank Independence and Price Stability: An analysis of Zimbabwe
Couverture souple
ISBN 10 : 3846525472 ISBN 13 : 9783846525470
Editeur : LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2011

Synopsis

The accuracy of inflation forecasting has been a challenge in most developing countries which do not have high frequency data.This study evaluates the performance of leading bivariate and trivariate models of inflation in forecasting inflation for Zimbabwe. Root Mean Square Forecast Errors (RMSFE) of the benchmark autoregressive model are compared with those of bivariate and trivariate vector autoregressions. The pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting results show that (1) the trivariate model using lags of inflation, crop production index and the parallel market exchange rate forecast inflation better (2) the term structure of interest rates also performs well and (3) monetary aggregates fare badly. Further, the study analyses the institutional set-up of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to determine its independence. Results show that political interests have been driving the monetary policy and this has undermined the credibility of the central bank. Even if independence is not the complete answer, it is at least suggestive that a more autonomous central bank would be effective even though it is neither necessary nor sufficient by itself for achieving and maintaining low inflation.

Les informations fournies dans la section « Synopsis » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.

Présentation de l'éditeur

The accuracy of inflation forecasting has been a challenge in most developing countries which do not have high frequency data.This study evaluates the performance of leading bivariate and trivariate models of inflation in forecasting inflation for Zimbabwe. Root Mean Square Forecast Errors (RMSFE) of the benchmark autoregressive model are compared with those of bivariate and trivariate vector autoregressions. The pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting results show that (1) the trivariate model using lags of inflation, crop production index and the parallel market exchange rate forecast inflation better (2) the term structure of interest rates also performs well and (3) monetary aggregates fare badly. Further, the study analyses the institutional set-up of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to determine its independence. Results show that political interests have been driving the monetary policy and this has undermined the credibility of the central bank. Even if independence is not the complete answer, it is at least suggestive that a more autonomous central bank would be effective even though it is neither necessary nor sufficient by itself for achieving and maintaining low inflation.

Biographie de l'auteur

Melania Mujutywa-Shayanewako, Studied Master of Economics in the field of International Economics, Public Policy and Taxation at Yokohama National University, Japan: Chief Economist, Ministry of Economic Planning and Investment Promotion, Zimbabwe

Les informations fournies dans la section « A propos du livre » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.

Éditeur
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing
Date d'édition
2011
Langue
anglais
ISBN 10 
3846525472
ISBN 13 
9783846525470
Reliure
Broché
Nombre de pages
112
Coordonnées du fabricant
non disponible
Personne responsable
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