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Modeling cancer parameters using Globocan Tunisia 2020 estimates: Book Series on Modeling Cancer Incidence-Mortality and Cum.Risk. Insights for Predicting Future Trends in Public Health - Couverture souple

Mejri, Nesrine; Saadi, Myriam; Ouerfelli, Noureddine

 
9786209881213: Modeling cancer parameters using Globocan Tunisia 2020 estimates: Book Series on Modeling Cancer Incidence-Mortality and Cum.Risk. Insights for Predicting Future Trends in Public Health

Synopsis

Cancer remains a major public health burden in Tunisia, requiring quantitative analyses to support prevention and control strategies. Using Globocan 2020 estimates, this study models cancer incidence, mortality, and cumulative risk in the Tunisia population. In 2020, an estimated 19,446 new cases and 11,855 deaths occurred. The most frequent cancers were Breast, Lung, Colorectum, Bladder, and Prostate, showing the highest lethality (Nd/Nc ≈ 98.7%) for Pancreas cancer. The global mortality ratio (slope ≈ 0.59) suggests that about three-quarters of new cases result in death. Linear and power-law correlations (Eqs. 1–7) describe the causal link between incidence and mortality, while the parameters (α = 1.063, k = 0.3642, γi> 1) express behavioral and severity indices. Gender disparities are evident, with Lung and bladder cancers dominating in males, and Breast and Colorectum in females. The modeling framework offers predictive insight for evaluating cancer dynamics and improving early detection and public health interventions in Tunisia.

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