Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View: A Bayesian View (The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis) - Couverture souple

Bijak, Jakub

Couverture souple

ISBN 10 : 940073395X ISBN 13 : 9789400733954

Editeur : Springer, 2012

Synopsis

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

A propos du livre

Présentation de l'éditeur

This book examines how to forecast the international migration component in a way that can be used for population forecasts using the probabilistic approach. It applies Bayesian statistical methods to an under-researched area of population forecasting.

Détails de l'édition

• Éditeur: Springer
• Date d'édition: 2012
• Langue: anglais
• ISBN 10: 940073395X
• ISBN 13: 9789400733954
• Reliure: Broché
• Nombre de pages: 340
• Coordonnées du fabricant: Springer Nature Customer Service Center GmbH; ProductSafety@springernature.com; ; Europaplatz 3,69115 Heidelberg, Germany; Heidelberg; Allemagne