When thinking becomes cheap, where does value go?
The price of the last unit of a translation, a legal draft, a piece of code, or a market analysis fell within a few years to almost nothing. Cognitive products have stopped being diamonds and begun to be water. But no cognitive product can be produced at zero cost. As thought becomes free, the ground it stands on becomes dear.
When scarcity disappears from one place, it does not vanish. It moves. As thought becomes plentiful, its body becomes scarce. As information becomes plentiful, the authority to decide which information matters becomes scarce. As cognition itself becomes plentiful, the right to use cognition becomes scarce. There is a well, a fence around the well, and a chair beside the gate in which someone sits and decides who may drink.
When most labor is done by machines, the channel through which income reached ordinary people, namely wages, narrows. What remains is the channel of ownership. The question of who works for what gives way to the question of who owns what. The first was a question about the present. The second is a question about the future.
A weather forecast does not change the weather. A market forecast is part of the weather. A thing that cannot lose sleep cannot tell you what is worth losing sleep over. An order can feed everyone and need almost no one. And the surest way to predict a thing is to produce it.
This book borrows its method from two dead men. From Spinoza it takes the geometric order of the Ethics: definitions, axioms, propositions, and beneath each proposition a proof. A sentence that wants to be written because it is pleasant, rather than because it follows, finds the door closed. From Asimov it takes the scene: two people in a room, talking, in an archive that does not yet exist.
It is not a prophecy. It is not investment advice. It is not a manifesto. It is a structure. Seldon hid his forecast so that it would work. This book publishes its forecast so that it will not.
Enes Cevdet Sengun studied physics and spent many years in quantitative trading before founding his own ventures in finance. He conducts independent research at the intersection of physics, psychology, and artificial intelligence.
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