This book provides a brief overview of China's "One Belt One Road" Initiative (OBOR), now officially re-labeled the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). Looking back from the vantage point of 2019 to 2013, when OBOR was first announced as China's new international infrastructure and trade initiative, OBOR/BRI has proven to be nothing less than an eye-catching program to assist developing countries in need of financing for sorely-needed infrastructure to achieve their economic development goals.
Today, more than 70 countries and organizations are involved in the OBOR/BRI enterprise. Each one of these appears to have its own interesting story to tell related to China's support for its infrastructure projects including but not limited to pipelines, high-speed and other rail lines, communications networks, roads, deep-water and air ports, energy grids and inland transport and cargo hubs. China supplies developing countries with the access to loans, construction materials and workers. OBOR/BRI is sold by China as a win-win(-win) situation in which China and the loan recipient benefit economically (with the third win representing peace).
The already rapid growth rate of China's OBOR received an unanticipated major boost when Donald Trump was elected US President in November 2016 and took office in mid-January 2017. Trump's campaign rhetoric and ensuing policies exposed his support for American isolationism as reflected in his campaign slogan "America First." Since his inauguration, the US has aggressively, intentionally, and incrementally embarked on abandoning its global leadership position and commitments, which it had held since the end of WWII. China through its OBOR has since taken advantage of the geopolitical vacuum created by America's self-imposed abdication not only from its global leadership status but from long-standing regional alliances and trade agreements as well.
Although each region, country or project mentioned in this book merits its own book-length, in-depth attention, here we highlight OBOR's geographic and functional stealth-like expansion around the globe on land, sea and in space. An extensive reference list is provided to enable readers to pursue various OBOR/BRI-related topics of interest.
The potential biases of various observers notwithstanding, there are challenging issues raised about the long-term sustainability of the OBOR/BRI. As the OBOR/BRI matures, questions about its economic viability are increasingly being raised. The issues raised by these questions and concerns should identify lessons that need to be learned both by China (governments, banks and companies) and by prospective OBOR/BRI partners. Fears of debt-trap diplomacy are but one example.
Most recently, articles are appearing that question whether such an ambitious global infrastructure development initiative is really viable in the long run. While China can control its actions and what it chooses to invest in to meet a wide range of its objectives, there are intervening factors over which it has little to no control. China's ability to provide loans to developing economies can be reduced by happenings in the global economy, whether a trade war with the US, a downturn in its economy, or an economic inability of people around the globe to buy its goods and services.
One Belt One Road: China's Long March to 2049 is the first book to explore both the scope and detail of this transformation of the global balance of power, as seen through the lens of OBOR/BRI.
Michael H. Glantz was a Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), where he researched from 1974 to 2009. Since then, he has been the director of the University of Colorado's Consortium for Capacity Building (CCB). His research publications relate to understanding how extreme climate, water and weather affect societies and how societies affect climate. Since 1976, Glantz has conducted joint research in the former Soviet Union and in the Central Asian Republics on desertification and on the disappearing of the Aral Sea. In 2013 he was recognized by China as a pioneer in desertification studies. Glantz is a member of the Advisory Committee of the international Integrated Risk Governance Program, headquartered at Beijing Normal University. He has lectured on the Climate Affairs concept in several Chinese cities at universities and meteorological centers. He has numerous publications on climate, water and weather issues. Glantz and Professor Qian (BNU and executive director of the IRG) co-authored Usable Thoughts: Climate, Water and Weather in the 21st Century. His current multiyear research is "El Niño Ready Nations," supported by USAID/OFDA. Many Belt and Road countries are affected by El Niño's impacts. In 1990 he received the Global 500 Award of the UN Environment Program (UNEP) that recognizes people working in diverse ways to protect and enhance the planet's natural resources. Glantz received the 2009 Clinton Global Initiative and Rockefeller Foundation Commitment. He has a BS in Metallurgical Engineering (1961) and an MA (1963) and PhD (1970) in Political Science/ International Relations from the University of Pennsylvania.
Robert J. Ross is Project Manager and Research Assistant for CCB. He has been researching societal and environmental issues that result from climate variability, change and extremes. He was invited to attend Beijing Normal University's summer program for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in 2015, which was focused on social responsibility in Early Warning Systems. He is currently researching an approach to earlier warnings of societal risks of El Niño's global impacts.
Gavin Goldstein Daugherty earned an MSc degree in Global Politics, Conflict Studies, at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). His research focused on macroeconomic and political analyses of the China-South China Sea and the Russia-Crimea disputes. Prior to attending LSE, Daugherty earned a BA in Political Science from the University of Colorado - Boulder, where he also worked as a Research Assistant at the Consortium for Capacity Building. Daugherty's research interests include international relations and their economic impacts in the Eurasian region.
