Das menschliche Urteilsverm�gen war Gegenstand jahrelanger Forschungen zur Entscheidungsfindung und Prognose. W�hrend anfangs der Schwerpunkt der Forschung auf der relativen Genauigkeit von urteilsm��igen und statistischen Prognosen lag, hat sich das Interesse dahingehend verlagert, da� nun untersucht wird, wie der Urteilende zu seiner Prognose kommt und wie die Prognosegenauigkeit durch geeignete Unterst�tzung verbessert werden kann. Im Anschlu� an ihren Vorl�ufer 'Judgemental Forecasting' haben Wright und Goodwin eine Reihe von Abhandlungen zusammengetragen, die von herausragenden Akademikern verfa�t wurden, sich haupts�chlich mit Prognosen befassen und ein breites, multi-disziplin�res Publikum anvisieren. Behandelt werden in leicht verst�ndlicher Weise neue und zuk�nftige Probleme. (01/98)

� propos de l?auteur

George Wright has held Faculty positions at LBS and Leeds Business School and is currently at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, where he consults to major blue-chip clients such as Philips and IBM. He has conducted extensive research into the role of judgement in forecasting and decision making, with particular emphasis on the simplification strategies of managers which lead to poor decisions. He has published both academic and trade books on forecasting and decision making, and contributed to various journals within the field. He founded the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making with Wiley in 1988 and is Associate Editor of the Wiley Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting.

Paul Goodwin, PhD, is Professor Emeritus at University of Bath, Bath, UK, where he teaches courses on Management Science, business forecasting, and decision analysis. He regularly conducts workshops at forecasting events around the world. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he is a well-known keynote speaker at SAS.

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