Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway

Dan Gardner

741 évaluations par Goodreads

Langue : anglais

Edité par Emblem Editions, 2011

0771035136 / 9780771035135

Vendeur : World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, Etats-UnisWorld of Books (was SecondSale)

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A propos de cet article

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future -- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate -- and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.…

N° de réf. du vendeur 00098829952

Titre
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway
Auteur
Dan Gardner
Éditeur
Emblem Editions
Année de publication
2011
État de l'article
Very Good
Reliure
Paperback
Langue
anglais
ISBN à 10 chiffres
0771035136
ISBN à 13 chiffres
9780771035135

World of Books (was SecondSale)

Montgomery, IL, Etats-Unis

Vendeur avec une évaluation de 5 étoiles

Vendeur AbeBooks depuis 20 décembre 2007

Frais d'expédition à l'intérieur de ce pays : Etats-Unis

Article4 à 12 jours ouvrés3 à 6 jours ouvrés
Premier articleEUR 0,00EUR 9,78
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Founded in 2002, World of Books is a leading online destination for buying and selling both preloved and new books, committed to making sustainable reading accessible to all. With a mission to help people read more and waste less, World of Books offers a huge range of affordable, high-quality books — giving both new and preloved titles a second life. The company also operates World of Books – Sell Your Books, an easy-to-use platform that allows customers to trade in unwanted books for cash, helping to keep books in circulation while promoting sustainability. As a Certified B Corp, World of Books is driven by a vision to become the world’s largest and most sustainable dedicated online bookstore. The company measures its success through the positive environmental impact it creates, the value it provides to customers, and its ability to operate profitably while supporting its sustainable mission …

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