Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development

This book presents the energy system roadmaps necessary to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. It provides a unique perspective on and critical understanding of the feasibility of a well-below-2°C world by exploring energy system pathways, technology innovations, behaviour change and the macro-economic impacts of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. The transformative changes in the energy transition are explored using energy systems models and scenario analyses that are applied to various cities, countries and at a global scale to offer scientific evidence to underpin complex policy decisions relating to climate change mitigation and interrelated issues like energy security and the energy-water nexus. It includes several chapters directly related to the Nationally Determined Contributions proposed in the context of the recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

In summary, the book collates a range of concrete analyses at different scales from around the globe, revisiting the roles of countries, cities and local communities in pathways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make a well-below-2°C world a reality.

A valuable source of information for energy modellers in both the industry and public sectors, it provides a critical understanding of both the feasibility of roadmaps to achieve a well-below-2°C world, and the diversity and wide applications of energy systems models. Encompassing behaviour changes; technology innovations; macro-economic impacts; and other environmental challenges, such as water, it is also of interest to energy economists and engineers, as well as economic modellers working in the field of climate change mitigation.

The authors are part of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP), one of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (TCPs) that underpin the efforts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to support innovation for energy security, economic growth and environmental protection.

The IEA-ETSAP-TCP is a unique network of energy modelling teams from approx. 70 countries that has operated for over 40 years. The network members cooperates to establish, maintain, develop and expand a consistent multi-country energy / economy / environment / engineering (4E) analytical capability, mainly based on the MARKAL/TIMES family of models. These bottom-up techno-economic models have been used to build and compare long term energy pathways and to provide in-depth national, multi-country, and global energy and environmental analyses.

George Giannakidis worked as a senior consultant in the Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Savingin Greece over the past twenty years. His scientific interests include energy systems analysis, energy economics and energy policy. He is particularly interested in the evaluation of the required energy policies to deliver large scale penetration of renewable energies. He has participated as a project partner and coordinator in a number of EU funded projects on energy planning and on the penetration of renewable energy sources into the energy system. He has also participated in the formulation of the Greek National Action Plans for energy efficiency, cogeneration of heat and power, and renewable energy sources. He was formerly the Operating Agent of IEA-ETSAP for five years and is currently the Project Head of IEA-ETSAP.

Kenneth Karlsson is leading the Energy System Analysis group at DTU Management Engineering at DTU Denmark. His research focus is on modelling of energy systems and the links to environment, economy and resources. He is involved in developing energy system optimization models on national, regional and global scales with a focus on high shares of renewable energy. He has been involved as an expert in most Danish commissions analysing the future energy system and was recently in charge of developing a new TIMES model for the Danish Energy Agency. Kenneth is currently the Operating Agent IEA-ETSAP and is one of the initiative takers behind the new Energy Modelling Platform Europe, EMP-E.

Maryse Labriet is director of Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Spain, and faculty lecturer on climate change, energy and development at the EOI-Business School of Madrid. She is one of the co-developers of the World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) made available within IEA-ETSAP, which she has used to assess global energy, technology and climate outlooks in international projects and modeling exercises such as the Energy Modeling Forum. Working at the intersection of research and consulting, her interests focuson advancing and sharing knowledge on low carbon and climate resilient energy policies, assessing energy systems and supporting decision-makers in the implementation and monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goal on energy.

Brian Ó Gallachóir is Professor of Energy Engineering in University College Cork, Ireland. He is also Vice-Director of UCC's Environmental Research Institute and Director of the SFI MaREI Centre, an energy and marine-based research, development and innovation hub based in Ireland. Brian is the elected Chair of the Executive Committee for IEA-ETSAP. His research focus is on building and using integrated energy systems models to inform energy and climate change mitigation policy. He is a member of Ireland's Gas Innovation Group and of Energy Cork, an industry-driven cluster pursuing coordinated actions to strengthen enterprise and employment within the energy sector in the Cork region.