An update of one of the most trusted books on constructing and analyzing actuarial models Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models , Third Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) qualification examinations. This update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events. This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Features of the Third Edition include: Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there is more than one parameter The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that have appeared on previous SOA and CAS examinations. Intriguing examples from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with conducting loss model analysis. Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS preliminary examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries, graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and risk models in their everyday work. To explore our additional offerings in actuarial exam preparation visit www.wiley.com/go/actuarialexamprep .
A modern practical guide to building and using actuarial models.
Loss Models: From Data to Decisions is organized around the principle that actuaries build models in order to analyze risks and make decisions about managing the risks based on conclusions drawn from the analysis. In practice, one begins with data and ends with a business decision. The book flows logically from this principle. It begins with a framework for model building and a description of frequency and severity loss data typically available to actuaries. Parametric models are emphasized throughout.
The frequency and severity models are used in building aggregate loss models, in credibility–based pricing models, and in loss analysis over multiple time periods.
Designed as both an educational text as well as a professional reference, Loss Models:
- Assumes little prior knowledge of insurance systems
- Features many fascinating examples taken from insurance files
- Contains a major instructive case study continued through each chapter
- Covers the classical areas of risk theory and loss distributions
- Gives a practical but rigorous treatment of modern credibility theory
- Uses standard statistical concepts, methods, and notation
- Provides modern computational algorithms for implementing methods
- Includes free companion software available from an FTP site
- Deals with many topics on CAS 4B and SOA 151 and 152 actuarial exams
- Includes many exercises based on past CAS and SOA exams.
