The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter

Erikson, Robert S.

ISBN 10: 0226922154 / ISBN 13: 9780226922157

Edité par University of Chicago Press, 2012

Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. N° de réf. du vendeur G0226922154I3N00

Synopsis :

In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play.

Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change.

Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

À propos de l'auteur:

Robert S. Erikson is professor of political science at Columbia University and the author or coauthor of several books, including The Macro Polity.

Détails bibliographiques

Titre : The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How ...
Éditeur : University of Chicago Press
Date d'édition : 2012
Reliure : Paperback
Etat : Good
Etat de la jaquette : No Jacket