Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty Puts forward a practical approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors integrate previous types of decision-making approaches with a fluid model that can be applied across a range of contexts and decisions.
Rigorously grounded conceptually but developed to meet practicalconcerns, this book underpins and extends the scope and power ofcurrent approaches to the management of risk and uncertainty inprojects and related operational and strategic management decisionmaking.
Ten tales, based on real cases, explore a range of projectrelated problems, including: cost estimation, pricing competitivebids, risk allocation and incentive contract design, evaluation ofthreats and opportunities, buffer management in a supply chain,investment appraisal, portfolio management, and strategyformulation. Each tale provides practical guidance on achievingeffective and efficient uncertainty management through simpleanalysis and discussion of emergent issues.
Using a ′constructively simple′ approach to model building andthe associated decision support processes, the authors show thereader how to take the guesswork out of managing risk anduncertainty. Keeping formal analysis simple, without beingsimplistic, and adding complexity only when it facilitatesadditional insights, they provide a framework for ′constructivesimplicity′ which can be used to enhance risk and uncertaintymanagement in any area of managerial decision making, whether in aproject, operational, or strategic context.
"This is not just another book about risk. Chapman and Wardfocus on decision–making in a holistic way, based on the analysisof uncertainty. The concepts are illustrated by "ten tales aboutuncertainty management". These are short stories based on casestudies in which the authors have been involved. They believe inKISS – not the usual definition but ′keep it simplesystematically." Professor Tony M. Ridley, Imperial College,London
"Abundantly illustrated with case studies, this interesting bookrightly highlights the need for simple, flexible models to managerisk and uncertainty. The author was associated with development ofthe PRAM model, which gives a rich variety of practical techniquesfor risk appraisal. The RAMP model provides a broad strategicframework, giving decision–makers an overall picture of the risksand rewards in a project. This book takes the discussion a stagefurther and provides many useful insights into the issues thatarise in practice." C G Lewin, Chairman, Risk ManagementSteering Group, Institute of Actuaries
"This book presents a holistic and comprehensive approach tomanagement decision making. Whilst the concepts are readilyunderstood, they are used to provide a thorough background to themanagement of uncertainty. This is an invaluable book for anyonefacing decision–making and uncertainty in either management orprogramme and project environments." Alan R Walker, CabinetOffice, Improving Programme and Project Delivery team
"Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward, through their constructivelysimple approach, and using Ockham′s razor, show how simple modelscan be constructed that capture the essentials of any business andproject scenario. By interpreting the problems as short stories,they are brought to life, showing that the decision is not justbased on the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the risk, butalso on the human condition, people′s motivations, right down towhether they like the cup of tea." Rodney Turner, Directorof Erasmus University, Rotterdam, and Director of EuroProjex
"In this well written book the reader is drawn from simple toadvanced concepts of risk management by stories that reflectsituations we all recognize. Chapman and Ward continually test therobustness of their conclusions by exercising the assumptionsagainst reality and common sense, and they remind us about theimportance of understanding the quality of the data being used. Bythe end of the book, the reader will have experienced a ratherconcentrated journey through many sophisticated analytical conceptsand have shared in exercises in mature professional judgement. Thisbook will well reward careful study by beginners and practitionersalike." David T. Hulett Ph.D., Hulett & Associates LLC,Project Management Consultants
"Many organizations, particularly in hi–tech businesses, areorganized around a changing portfolio of projects. These can onlybe managed properly if there is a proper understanding of projectrisks and uncertainties and, sadly, this is an area in which thereis considerable room for improvement. Chapman and Ward′s book has apleasing blend of quantitative and qualitative insights and willhelp train a generation of managers who are better equipped tomanage successful projects." Mike Pidd, Professor ofManagement Science, Lancaster University
