Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective - Couverture souple

 
9789048156603: Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective
Couverture souple
ISBN 10 : 9048156602 ISBN 13 : 9789048156603
Editeur : Springer, 2010

Synopsis

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Les informations fournies dans la section « Synopsis » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.

Présentation de l'éditeur

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Les informations fournies dans la section « A propos du livre » peuvent faire référence à une autre édition de ce titre.

Éditeur
Springer
Date d'édition
2010
Langue
anglais
ISBN 10 
9048156602
ISBN 13 
9789048156603
Reliure
Broché
Nombre de pages
336
Éditeur
Tabeau E., Van Den Berg Jeths Anneke, Heathcote Christopher
Coordonnées du fabricant
non disponible
Personne responsable
CMN Printpool Inh. Mathis Neumann
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Hamburg
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Autres éditions populaires du même titre

9780792368335: Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries: Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

Edition présentée

ISBN 10 :  0792368339 ISBN 13 :  9780792368335
Editeur : Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
Couverture rigide