Representativeness heuristic bayesian probability (1 résultats)

Taschenbuch. Etat : Neu. nach der Bestellung gedruckt Neuware - Printed after ordering - Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. The representativeness heuristic is a psychological term describing a phenomenon wherein people judge the probability or frequency of a hypothesis by considering how much the hypothesis resembles available data as opposed to using a Bayesian calculation. While often very useful in everyday life, it can also result in neglect of relevant base rates and other cognitive biases. The representative heuristic was first proposed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. In causal reasoning, the representativeness heuristic leads to a bias toward the belief that causes and effects will resemble one another (examples include both the belief that 'emotionally relevant events ought to have emotionally relevant causes', and magical associative thinking).…